Yield ramp: Establishment years 1–2 = 0% production. Years 3–8 = 10%→25%→40%→60%→80%→100% of mature yield. Based on Jordan NCARE Jojoba agronomy data and Wadi Araba site conditions.
Tree density: Default 60 trees per 1,000 m² (1 dunam) = ~4.1 m × 4.1 m spacing, standard Wadi Araba planting. 100 ha = 1,000 dunams × 60 = 60,000 trees.
OPEX scaling: Water ($406/ha), electricity ($900/ha without solar), fertilisers ($0.50/tree), pest & disease ($100/ha), irrigation maintenance ($150/ha), fuel ($100/ha) all scale with land/trees. Salaries and G&A are partially fixed (base rates for ≤100 ha).
Harvest workers: Not in original model (costed at $0 — critical error). Added here from Year 3 as 20 workers × 3 months × $500/month, scaled by yield factor. Adds ~$30K/yr at full production.
Working capital: Auto-calculated as maximum cumulative operating deficit through year 3 × 1.15 safety buffer (minimum $200K). Changes dynamically when inputs change.
Depreciation: Hard capex assets depreciated straight-line over 15 years (non-cash; excluded from operating CF but shown in P&L net income).
Taxation: Jordan agricultural income exempt under Income Tax Law No. 34/2014 — model applies 0% tax. Verify with local tax counsel.
Oil pressing toggle: Assumes 50% oil extraction ratio × 3.5× revenue multiplier vs. raw seed. Cold-press facility capex not separately modelled — add $80–150K if pursuing.
Well on site: Existing well reduces cost to upgrade/connect ($40K) vs. full new drilling ($255K). Original model included $255K despite confirmed on-site well — a critical error.
All figures in USD. Seed price range: raw FOB $6–9/kg (2023–2025 global). Certified organic +20–30% premium possible.